CYBERSPACE — Throughout history, mankind has ventured farther and farther in search of land, space, and property perfect for habitation and use. Although the physical resources of Mother Earth are strained today, many optimistically assume that those associated with the internet are endless; without horizon, or maximum capacity. A recent study concludes that this is not only a comforting fiction, but one that will be proven demonstrably false within the next two years.According to independent analysis firm Nemertes Research Group, the combined weight of private and corporate traffic could well result in brown-outs within the next 24 months, unless billions of dollars are pumped into the internet’s infrastructure to relieve the pressure.
It’s no surprise to anyone that the ever-expanding ability of online users to view, store, share, or otherwise load bandwidth sucking content including video and music onto the internet can slow everyone down. The fact that there’s a limit to how much cyber stuff the system’s backbone can handle isn’t something that the average person spends much time thinking about, however.
Nemertes Research Group opines that this may become blindingly obvious by 2010, unless $137 million makes its way into the support equipment system. Unfortunately, Internet Service Providers only have about half of that amount budgeted for improvement, according to IDG News Service. North America alone is believed to require somewhere between $42 billion and $55 billion during the next three to five years if everyone wants to stay jacked in.
Using what’s called “Moore’s Law” to estimate the rate of internet application innovation, the study is perhaps the first to extrapolate how that growth may affect the ability of the ‘Net to remain stable and accessible.
“Our findings indicate that although core fiber and switching/routing resources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable user demand, internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years,” the report concludes ominously.
Fortunately, the researchers do not leave their readers to fret in despair about the inevitable collapse of a communication medium that has moved from a novelty hobby or necessary work evil to a near social necessity. Indeed, the NRG report provides recommendations for ways that traffic can continue to race through the planet’s various information highways and byways.
Among other things, the report foretells a future where Web apps including streaming and interactive video, audio downloads, and peer-to-peer exchanges will only increase, further filling up an increasingly precious amount of available space. Given that analysis group comScore estimates that three-quarters of domestic users clocked an impressive 158 minutes of online video consumption during May alone (YouTube, anyone?), taking in more than 8.3 billion video streams, concern seems wise.
The advocacy group, Internet Innovation Alliance, has long urged online consumers to be aware of the technology’s limitations, warning of an impending “exaflood” of high intensity, bandwidth clogging content, so big names such as AT&T, Corning, Americans for Tax Reform, the American Council for the Blind, and Level 3 Communications are aware of what the future may hold for American broadband networks. That exaflood may well be in the process of cresting, given that 161 exabytes of new data is expected to be created during the year,
While the creaking being heard from the internet’s backbone may be the sound of success when it comes to making technology accessible to the average person, it also makes the maintenance and development of more robust support strategies everybody’s business.
Those especially poised to make a difference are infrastructure providers and lawmakers, however. In addition to authorizing government funds for development and maintenance, suggestions for other ways to relieve backbone stress include new homes being built with broadband connections and tax credits for providers.
